Once again, the release of the Case Shiller Index for home prices has the real estate industry (and economists) in a tizzle - but not everyone’s in agreement about the message this time.
While year-over-year numbers indicate the index is down a massive 18.1%, the most recent monthly drop for April is smaller than previous declines at 0.6% (as compared to the 2.2% we analyzed last month).
Is it the beginning of the “the turnaround” or just a faux?
S&P chairman David Blitzer kept his insights fairly neutral: “Thirteen of the 20 metro areas also saw improvement in their annual return compared to that of March. Furthermore, every metro area, except for Charlotte, recorded an improvement in monthly returns over March,” Blitzer said in a statement. “While one month’s data cannot determine if a turnaround has begun; it seems that some stabilization may be appearing in some of the regions.”
But it sounds like not everyone’s so convinced.
Some notable “quotables” from the media:
* CNNMoney.com: “Not all optimistic: The housing market picture is still very murky, according to Pat Newport, a real estate analyst with IHS Global Insight. He’s not convinced that the improved
April report means much more than a seasonal variation in housing markets. Spring is, historically, a strong time of year for housing markets.”
* MarketWatch.com: “U.S. home prices fell in April, but overall annual declines are slowing, according to the national Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday… ‘The fly in the ointment is foreclosures, which tend to result in much lower prices and are an increasing
proportion of transactions,’ [Ian] Shepherdson [chief U.S. economist with High Frequency Economics] wrote. ‘For now, though, this is clearly less bad than recently.’”
* Wall Street Journal Blogs: “…the bloodletting may not be over. Heres why: If price declines accelerate for the mid-to-upper end of the housing market, then that could generate enough large declines in valueseven among a small segment of the overall housing marketto push the index lower
still.
* Bloomberg.com: “Home prices saw a striking improvement in the rate of decline in April and trading in funds launched today indicates investors believe the U.S. housing slump is nearing a bottom, said Yale University economist Robert Shiller.”
And I thought numbers didn’t lie. Home buyers, owners and sellers: What do you think? Do you see a turnaround or more trouble for your area?
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